Given the violent market swings of the last few weeks, some of the most recent calls are most intriguing.
Thomas Lee, market strategist for J.P. Morgan, told Bloomberg Television that he is maintaining a target of 1475 for the S&P. Cynics might counter that General Custer was reported to be optimistic on the morning of the Little Big Horn. Lee allows that the stars will have to be aligned, particularly regarding Europe, but he still feels that the microeconomic indicators (such as rail shipments) and company valuations are favorable. Lee does have a good track record and merits attention.
Barry Knapp of Barclays Capital echoes Lee's reasoning, but Knapp has lowered his target to 1300. Economist Brian Wesbury, a long-time bull, is also upbeat on the U.S. economy based on high-frequency economic indicators.
Jeff Saut, market strategist for Raymond James, is always interesting as he looks at both fundamentals and technical levels. He is "constructive" on the markets as long as the S&P holds 1100. Saut feels that the media overplays the doom and gloom and this can be self-fulfilling.
Jeremy Siegel of Wharton, no surprise, told CNBC on 9/30 that he sees long-term value in the market, particularly 3-5 years out.
On 9/22, venerable hedge fund manager Barton Biggs told Bloomberg that he was nervous and saw the potential for another 20% drop in the markets if Europe didn't act swiftly. This was noteworthy because he had only recently been quite bullish. Biggs' track record recently has been spotty but because of his experience, perspicacity and humility, he should not be ignored.
Perm-a-bear Gary Schilling (9/27, Bloomberg) sees the economy rolling over and housing dropping another 20% over the next 3 years.
Doug Cliggott of Credit Suisse told Bloomberg (9/28) that he saw the S&P at 1100. More striking, Cliggot sees S&P 2012 earnings at $81, more than $20 below consensus. He blames the withdrawal of federal stimulus.
