Jim Paulsen - Consumer Discretionary Stocks As A Leading Indicator

Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, in his 10/17 investment letter, notes that the S&P Consumer Discretionary Stock Price Index was recently at an "all-time" relative price high.  He argues that this is evidence that the U.S. economy is not going into recession.  Furthermore, based on the record of recent decades, an uptick in consumer discretionary spending is a precursor of private sector job growth. 

Jeremy Siegel on Europe and the Markets

Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel told Bloomberg that if the European Central Bank were to announce a major backstop of European sovereign debt, say to the tune of 2 trillion dollars or more, the equity markets would take off. 

Three More Bulls

UBS' Jonathan Golub told Bloomberg sees the S&P at 1350 by year's end.  Even though he has pulled back his earnings estimates, absent a European blowup, valuations are supportive.

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors, writing on the Cumberland web site,  sees the S&P in the 1350-1400 range.  He says there is too much pessimism and very little chance of recession.

Anthony Dwyer of Collins Stewart told Bloomberg he sees the S&P at 1500 in a year with the 10-year treasury yield flirting with 3%.  It should be noted that this past summer, Dwyer was looking for 1550 by the end of 2011. 

Ralph Acampora Bullish

Veteran technician Ralph Acampora told Bloomberg on 10/17 that he sees the S&P going to 1375 in the next few months.  Acampora emphasizes the importance of leadership stocks as a measure of the health of the market and IBM is such a bellwhether stock.  As long as it is making new highs, the market should steam ahead.  Ironically, a few hours later, IBM reported somewhat light revenue for the third quarter and the stock promptly sold off $8 in after-hours trading. 

Jeff Saut Sees Market Overbought Short Term

Jeff Saut of Raymond James in his weekly market commentary (10/17) calls the market overbought in the short term but he feels that market lows are in for the year and sees upside potential to 1370 by year end.

Barton Biggs Cautiously Positive

When we last heard from veteran hedge fund guru Barton Biggs in late September, he was quite cautious on equities saying he had reduced his exposure to them significantly.  Today he told Bloomberg that he was more positive on the markets going forward based on recent constructive economic news.  As such he has adjusted his asset allociation with stocks representing about 65% of his mix. 

Nobody Asked Me But ...

Market sentiment is all over the map but if a consensus exists at all, it is that we are in a trading range of a couple of hundred points.  Jim Rogers points out that as evidenced by the 1970's, trading ranges can last for a very long time, as much as a decade.  And, he says, we may well be mired in such an extended period right now.  Rogers' opinions should never be ignored.