Jim Paulsen - Consumer Discretionary Stocks As A Leading Indicator

Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, in his 10/17 investment letter, notes that the S&P Consumer Discretionary Stock Price Index was recently at an "all-time" relative price high.  He argues that this is evidence that the U.S. economy is not going into recession.  Furthermore, based on the record of recent decades, an uptick in consumer discretionary spending is a precursor of private sector job growth.